Minnesota's Unemployment Rate Holds at All-Time Low: 1.8%

The unemployment rate held steady at 1.8% in July 2022 – tying the record low since the metric has been tracked in 1976, according to numbers released today by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED). This was also the all-time lowest state rate on record in the United States as of June.

On a seasonally adjusted basis Minnesota gained 19,100 jobs in July, up 0.7% from June, following the addition of 1,000 jobs (revised upward) in June 2022. The private sector gained 14,600 jobs in July, up 0.6% from June.

Since January 2022, Minnesota’s seasonally adjusted employment has grown 2.3% while the U.S. has grown 1.9% since January 2022.

The U.S. gained 528,000 jobs in July, up 0.3% from June, with the private sector up 471,000 jobs, or 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The U.S. has now regained all the jobs lost during the pandemic recession.

The size of Minnesota’s labor force declined for the first time this year, dropping by nearly 4,000 people as a result of small declines in both the number employed and the number unemployed. The result was a one-tenth of a point decrease in the labor force participation rate, to 68.4%.

In 2022, Minnesota’s labor force growth has been strong but slowing. Based on a three-month moving average, Minnesota’s labor force grew 0.3% in March-May, 0.2% in April-June and 0.1% in May-July. The U.S. labor force grew 0.1%, -0.1% and 0% over the same periods.

Nationally, the unemployment rate ticked down one-tenth of a point to 3.5% and the size of the labor force shrank by 63,000 workers, with the labor force participation rate down one-tenth of a point to 62.1%. This was due to fewer employed as well as unemployed people nationally.

“Our record-low unemployment rate remained steady in July as Minnesotans continued to find opportunity in the economy,” said DEED Commissioner Steve Grove. “Despite a very tight labor market, employers are hiring at a fast rate, and continue to offer ample opportunities for Minnesotans seeking good-paying jobs. For employers facing hiring challenges, we’re continuing DEED’s Summer of Jobs campaign to highlight job market opportunities, and to help employers find workers in labor pools they may have previously overlooked.”

The Summer of Jobs campaign visited Owatonna last week, where Commissioner Grove, Governor Walz and Lieutenant Governor Flanagan met with business and community leaders to hear about hiring challenges and solutions, as well as to focus on high-demand careers from manufacturing to computer engineering. Yesterday the Summer of Jobs campaign headed north to Thief River Falls where Commissioner Grove participated in the grand opening of Digi-Key's massive distribution facility, met with leaders and staff at Textron (Arctic Cat), and led a roundtable with area leaders around attracting and retaining workers in the northwestern part of the state. The next Summer of Jobs event will focus on the Office of New Americans, with an emphasis on connecting employers and workers from immigrant and refugee communities. This event is slated for the morning of August 30 in the metro area; additional details will be announced soon.

Employment recovery has not been consistent for all Minnesotans. In July, the labor force participation rate ticked up two-tenths of a point to 68.6% for white Minnesotan’s and three-tenths of a point to 80% for Hispanic Minnesotans. The labor force participation rate ticked down eight-tenths of a point to 68.1% for Black Minnesotans. The unemployment rate remained level at 2.4% for white Minnesotans, fell one-tenth to 7.3% for Black Minnesotans and rose one-tenth to 3.2% for Hispanic Minnesotans in July. (Numbers are based on 12-month moving average Demecon data from the Current Population Survey.)

Unemployment Rates by Race or Ethnicity, Minnesota, 12-month Moving Average

Month/Year Total White Black Hispanic

July-2022 2.9% 2.4% 7.3% 3.2%

June-2022 3.0% 2.4% 7.4% 3.1%

July-2021 4.6% 4.7% 3.5% 6.7%

Over the month change -0.1 0 -0.1 0.1

Annual change -1.7 -2.3 3.8 -3.5

Note: these estimates differ from the official statewide estimate because they are calculated from 12 months of data rather than a single month.

In July, on a seasonally adjusted basis, Minnesota added jobs in Construction, up 1,100 jobs or 0.8%; Manufacturing up 2,600 jobs or 0.8%; Professional & Business Services up 3,900 jobs or 1%; Leisure & Hospitality up 6,700 jobs or 2.7%; and Government up 4,500 jobs or 1.1%. Losses were in Financial Activities down 1,000 jobs or 0.5%, and Other Services down 800 jobs or 0.7%.

Job growth has been lumpy and uneven coming out of the recession. Translating seasonally adjusted job change into a 3-month moving average, Minnesota added 10,800 jobs (0.4%) in March-May; 7,300 jobs (0.3%) in April-June and 9,200 jobs (0.3%) in May-July. Nationally, U.S. employment increased 0.3% in each of those three periods.

Over the year (OTY), Minnesota gained 78,519 payroll jobs, up 2.7%, over the year. The private sector gained 77,854 jobs, up 3.1% over the year.

Nine of 11 supersectors posted positive over-the-year (OTY) employment growth, with Construction flat OTY. Manufacturing, Trade, Transportation & Utilities, Information, Financial Activities, Professional & Business Services, Education & Health Services, Leisure & Hospitality, Other Services and Government all posted OTY growth. Among the supersectors:

• Professional & Business Services grew 4.9% OTY (18,664 jobs). Manufacturing posted 17,416 additional jobs, up 5.5% OTY. Non-Durable Goods employment grew 5.0% (5,737 jobs) while Durable Goods grew 5.7% (11,679 jobs). Manufacturing employment growth continued to be stronger than the nation, which was at 3.8% OTY in July.

• Leisure & Hospitality continued to post the highest OTY growth of all the supersectors, up 9.0% with the addition of 23,029 jobs. Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation posted 17.9% growth (8,248 jobs). Accommodation and Food Services grew 7.1% (14,781 jobs). As this supersector recovers from the pandemic, OTY growth rates are slowing though remain quite strong.

U.S. employment grew 4.0% OTY with the private sector up 4.5% in July. All supersectors showed gains OTY.

In Minnesota and across the nation, wages are still not keeping up with the rate of inflation. Average hourly wages for all private sector workers, at $34.43 in July, rose 5.6% over the year and 9.8% over two years. Nationally private sector wages at $32.11 rose 5.3% over the year and 9.9% over two years. The CPI inflation index for all urban consumers rose 8.5% OTY in July 2022 and 14.2% over two years.

Minnesota and U.S. Employment and Unemployment – July 2022

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate July 2022 June 2022 July 2022 July 2021

Minnesota 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 3.2%

U.S. 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 5.7%

Non-Farm Jobs July 2022 June 2022 July '21- July '22 Level Change July '21- July '22 % Change

Minnesota 2,934,800 2,915,700 78,519 2.7%

U.S. 152,536,000 152,008,000 5,797,000 4.0%

July 2022 Over the Year (OTY) Employment Growth by Industry Sector (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Industry Supersector OTY Job Change OTY Growth Rate (%) U.S. OTY Growth Rate (%)

Total 78,519 2.7% 4.0%

Private 77,854 3.1% 4.5%

Mining & Logging -224 -3.3% 11.3%

Construction -62 0% 4.2%

Manufacturing 17,416 5.5% 3.8%

Trade, Transport. & Utilities 2,019 0.4% 3.5%

Information 1,271 3.0% 6.6%

Financial Activities 181 0.1% 2.2%

Prof. & Business Services 18,664 4.9% 5.2%

Ed. & Health Services 12,745 2.4% 3.3%

Leisure & Hospitality 23,029 9.0% 8.7%

Other Services 2,815 2.6% 3.9%

Government 665 0.2% 0.8%

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Over-the-Year (OTY) Employment Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted: July 2021 – July 2022

(* - June 2021 – June 2022 for border state MSAs due to data delay from MSAs outside Minnesota.)

Metropolitan Statistical Area OTY Employment Change (#, NSA) OTY Employment Change (%, NSA)

Minneapolis-St. Paul MN-WI MSA 63,189 3.2

Duluth-Superior MN-WI MSA 4,333 3.4

Rochester MSA 3,283 2.6

St. Cloud MSA 3,040 2.9

Mankato MSA 3,360 6.3

Fargo-Moorhead ND-MN MSA (June) 3,700 2.6

Grand Forks-East Grand Forks ND-MN MSA (June) 1,400 2.7

La Crosse-Onalaska WI-MN (June) -300 -0.4

Visit the DEED website to see DEED’s alternative measures of unemployment. You can also find monthly jobs numbers and unemployment data on DEED’s website. In addition, see related articles about job growth and labor market changes in the latest issue of Minnesota Employment Trends. Learn more about the Summer of Jobs campaign, and access resources to help Minnesotans prepare for and find employment now at CareerForceMN.com/GoodJobsNow.

DEED is the state’s principal economic development agency, promoting business recruitment, expansion and retention, workforce development, international trade and community development. For more details about the agency and its services, visit the DEED website, the JoinUsMn.com website, or follow us on Twitter.