The likelihood that Earth briefly hits key warming threshold grows bigger and closer, UN forecasts

May 18, 20230

Bryan Thomas, New York Times file count

A woman shields herself from the sun while crossing the street in New York, July 28, 2016. Global temperatures are likely to soar to record highs over the next five years, driven by human-caused warming and a climate pattern known as El Niño, forecasters at the World Meteorological Organization said.

There's a two-out-of-three chance that the world will temporarily hit a key warming limit within the next five years, the United Nations weather agency said Wednesday.

But it likely would only be a fleeting and less worrisome flirtation with the internationally agreed upon temperature threshold. Scientists expect a temporary burst of heat from El Nino - a naturally-occurring weather phenomenon - to supercharge human-caused warming from the burning of coal, oil and gas to new heights. Temperatures are expected to then slip back down a bit.

The World Meteorological Organization forecasts a 66% likelihood that between now and 2027, the globe will have a year that averages 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the mid 19th century.

https://www.startribune.com/the-likelihood-that-earth-briefly-hits-key-warming-threshold-grows-bigger-and-closer-un-forecasts/600275527/