Red Lake Nation completes population study results demand action

Many tribes including Red Lake Nation are experiencing population declines and an overall aging of their populations. We all have relatives who cannot get enrolled because their blood quantum isn’t high enough. Tribal members and leaders may worry about what this means about the future of the tribe.

A recent population projection study conducted by Wilder Research on behalf of Red Lake Nation confirms that we have reason to pay attention to this issue of tribal enrollment. And we, as a tribe, must act soon!

If Red Lake keeps our current enrollment criteria of ¼ Red Lake blood, or even if we allow other tribes’ blood to count in toward the ¼ blood quantum criteria, our tribe’s population will start decreasing now and could drop to less than 1,500 tribal members by the year 2122.

If we keep using blood quantum to determine eligibility for enrollment, but we reduce the amount of blood required for tribal enrollment to 1/8, the projections from Wilder indicate that the tribe’s population may initially grow a little and then will start to decline within the next 50 years or so. Under this scenario, we expect the population size won’t change much by the end of the 100 year period included in the study, but would be likely to start declining after that time. Blood quantum just doesn’t work if we want to maintain or grow our population, because the overall fertility rate and proportion of babies who are born that have both parents who are Red Lake members is just not high enough.

Lineal descent is an alternative to blood quantum. It uses the more traditional approach where any individual who has a parent who is a tribal member is eligible to become a tribal member. In practice, this would include any individual who is a direct descendant of someone who is on the 1958 Red Lake Nation base roll. Wilder Research projected that Red Lake Nation’s population could grow to between 56,000 and 82,000 over the next 100 years if we changed to lineal descent.

We were concerned about how it could negatively impact our tribe’s resources and overwhelm the enrollments office if we did change the tribal enrollment criteria to lineal descent. There are several options including phasing blood quantum down by 1/16 every three years until we reach lineal descent. Or we could phase in people under lineal descent by age so we’d start with the oldest descendants age 50+ and then add in descendants from age 40-50, then age 30-40, etc. In other words, there are options to make sure any change to our enrollment criteria doesn’t overwhelm us or result in resources not being available for current tribal members.

The methods used by Wilder Research and their consultant Dr. Carolyn Liebler from the University of Minnesota Sociology Department and Minnesota Population Center are the best available methods to project a population over time with changing fertility and mortality rates; however, there are limitations with small populations and over long periods of time. In addition, these projections are based on assumptions about fertility and mortality rates based on the best available information we have today. But, we cannot predict things like global pandemics, opiate epidemics, and other things that may happen in the future to change the fertility and mortality rates from what we projected in this study. No one has a crystal ball to predict the future with 100% accuracy, but this study is the best information we have, and it’s a lot better than what we had before (nothing) and compared with what the vast majority of other tribes have. So, we should use this information, with these limitations in mind, to help us as we make decisions for our people.

It is really important for Red Lake Nation members to know that any changes to our enrollment criteria would require constitutional reform. We really hope you will use the information from this study to help you understand how enrollment criteria impacts the future of our tribe. Then, we can all work together to decide how to make the best future for our children and grandchildren, and their children and grandchildren!

If you want to learn more and share your thoughts, please consider attending one of the listening sessions we will hold for tribal members in December.

Red Lake Nation Listening Sessions

Sunday, December 11, 2022 - Ponemah

• 1-3 p.m .: Ponemah Boys and Girls Club

• 6-8 p.m .: Virtual via Zoom https://us06web.zoom.us/j/86840883606?pwd=YXlkNEtGQTZoTUlxY1NyZDFzcDFqdz09

Meeting ID: 868 4088 3606

Passcode: 686132

Monday, December 12, 2022 - Red Lake

• 5:30-7:30 p.m .: New Red Lake Center

Thursday, December 15, 2022 - Minneapolis

• 5:30 -7:30 p.m. - Red Lake Nation Embassy – Community Room

Go to the Red Lake Nation web site (https://www.redlakenation.org/) to learn more about the listening sessions and contact Sarah White at SWhite@redlakenation.org with any questions.

Red Lake Nation: Population Projections Study: https://www.wilder.org/wilder-research/research-library/red-lake-nation-population-projections