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Mayo warns omicron peak means Minnesota only halfway through surge

Modeling suggests that Minnesota's COVID-19 case rate will hit a peak in the next week, but active infections are likely already declining


January 27, 2022

Glen Stubbe, Star Tribune

Mayo Clinic's predictive COVID-19 modeling indicates a peak in infections is days away in Minnesota, but infections and hospitalizations will continue even as the rate declines.

A peak in coronavirus infections likely has occurred in Minnesota, but Mayo Clinic forecasters warned Wednesday that the state's fifth pandemic wave is far from over.

Mayo's updated modeling predicted a peak in Minnesota's confirmed COVID-19 cases on Jan. 29, but the lag in reporting infections means that viral spread is already declining, said Curtis Storlie, a co-creator of Mayo's predictive COVID-19 model and 14-day forecast.

"We're likely at peak, reaching peak," Storlie said. "What does that mean? It means we're half done with this current surge. It's important to recognize the omicron surge is not over. There's going to be thousands of infections and hospitalizations on the way back down, too."


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