COVID-19 models forecast the virus in sharp retreat in Minnesota


Anthony Souffle, Star Tribune

Jorge Arellano, 13, got his first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine from nurse Erin Oleson Thursday, May 13, at Children's Minnesota.

Three major COVID-19 models predict sharp declines in viral spread in Minnesota in late May - with Mayo Clinic forecasting a drop from 900 new infections per day to 563 by Memorial Day weekend.

The forecasts come amid a decline to 5.7% in the positivity rate of diagnostic testing in the state and a drop in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota from a peak of 699 on April 14 to 423 on Sunday.

The models forecast a decline to what will likely be a stable level of transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19, rather than an end to the pandemic, said Dr. Sean Dowdy, Mayo's deputy chief value officer and a co-creator of the health system's model.


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